xG Predictions For Betting Profit

This is being massively overlooked

We’re looking into the table behind the table.

The data under the points tally.

Today we’ll do the Prem, and other leagues will come later in the week.

So much for City in crisis. They sit comfortably at the top of the expected goal difference. That’s to say they have the biggest difference between their chances of scoring per game and their opponents.

Spurs are sitting much higher than expected.

Fulham also are having a blinder.

Man Utd in 5th may shock many but it’s true and if Amorim can get them finishing better and crafting a better quality of chance even with less shots they could march up the table.

Arsenal are massively over performing in reality. Relying on set pieces and defending is finally catching up with them… we called their downfall at the start of the season by saying they wouldn’t challenge and already 11 games in, theyre 9pts behind.

TIPS: 1.5 units Man Utd to finish top 6 at 2/1,
2 units Fulham to finish top half at 11/10.

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At the bottom of the table there are few surprises. Brentford stand out as over performers at this point. 1.87 xGA per game is HORRIBLE and they could start falling, but they always find a way to defy xG.

Afterall they were the club that put xG on the map signing the likes of Ivan Toney using their xG model. We do however see a drop off coming.

Leicester have done well so far but we have them as relegated come the end of the season.

TIP: 3 units Leicester to be relegated 1.75

They’ve been atrocious for large spells but Steve Cooper is a master of the smash and grab. However, given the chance creation and defending metrics, alongside the fan base not being a fan and ready to turn sour as soon as they drop into 18th… we think it’s much too big a price to turn down. No way Wolves or Palace are going to have a worse run in from this point on.